Insiders pull back in tech, favoring other sectors: Corporate insiders have pulled back a bit on their activity lately, especially in tech stocks. It's not enough to consider it a negative yet, though. In energy and utilities, they've picked up their buying interest to a level that has preceded good returns in those sectors.

The S&P 500 is uncorrelated with...itself: Daily moves in the S&P 500 index have becoming less correlated to the breadth of movement in its underlying stocks to the 2nd-most extreme degree in 30 years. There is also a near-record negative correlation between value and growth stocks. Only the year 2000 can match this type of odd behavior.

Dumb (?) Money: The "dumb" money has been anything but over the past 2 months. We'll have to update on the Brier Score for the Risk Level on Thursday, quantifying just how much this market has steamrolled high-risk conditions. Only 2 dates even come close. That's thanks to Dumb Money Confidence, with the same score showing that these traders have been right to nearly the most extreme level since we began compiling it back in 1998.

Handing over the reins: Apple has been a driving force for the major indexes, yet on Wednesday it suffered a pretty nasty negative reversal, and yet the indexes have still powered higher. Remarkable market. For what it's worth, and it's likely not much in this environment, the handful of other times Apple has suffered a major negative gap-and-crap, the broader market had a very hard time holding its ground.

Bottom Line:

• Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term again; still suggesting higher prices long-term
• Indicators show high optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence above 80% and evidence of skyrocketing speculation while the market environment is turning more neutral - typically a bad combination, though so far the risky conditions have failed to lead to any weakness
• Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
• Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
• Indicators and studies for other markets are showing less consistent forward results, though it's not a great sign for Treasuries that hedgers are net short and optimism on metals recently became extreme with concerning 100-day analogs, with "perfect" breadth among miners recently dipping a bit.