Updates (Changes made today are underlined)
After stocks bottomed on March 23rd, they enjoyed a historic buying thrust and retraced a larger amount of the decline than "just a bear market rally" tends to. Through June, there were signs of breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes that have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame. On a shorter-term basis, our indicators have been showing high optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence recently above 80%, along with signs of reckless speculation during what appears to be an unhealthy market environment, historically a bad combination. While there are certainly some outlier indicators that are showing apathy or even outright pessimism, a weight-of-the-evidence approach suggests high risk over a multi-week to multi-month time frame. I've been carrying a low (too low) level of exposure to stocks, as well as bonds and gold. I don't see a good opportunity to add to any of those currently, with poor prospects pretty much all the way around. As worried as I am over the medium-term, I would only grudgingly reduce my exposure even further given the longer-term positives we spent so much time discussing in the spring. At this point, I would only look seriously at lowering exposure further if the S&P 500 starts to show some sign of faltering, which so far has been almost completely absent.
RETURN YTD: -1.5% 2019: 12.6%, 2018: 0.6%, 2017: 3.8%, 2016: 17.1%, 2015: 9.2%, 2014: 14.5%, 2013: 2.2%, 2012: 10.8%, 2011: 16.5%, 2010: 15.3%, 2009: 23.9%, 2008: 16.2%, 2007: 7.8%
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