Broader market is shaking off the influence of Big Tech

Jason Goepfert
2020-09-22
In recent years, the S&P 500 has been highly correlated to changes in the Nasdaq 100. That has plunged lately as the market has shrugged off the influence of big tech stocks. Other times when the correlation between them dropped, it was a shorter-term weight on tech.

For the first time in almost 2 years, the broader market is shaking off the influence of the biggest tech stocks.

The newsletter Daily Shot noted that over the past 90 days, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 has dived. It's gone on longer than that - over the past 6 months, the correlation between daily changes in the two indexes has dropped below 0.9 (on a scale from +1.0 to -1.0). That's the lowest since 2018.

Historically, such a high sustained correlation like we've seen in the past decade is unusual.

When big tech stocks' influence started to wane for the first time in a while, it weighed on their shorter-term returns.

Same for the broader market but to a lesser degree.

That means the ratio between them favored the S&P over the shorter-term but since so many of the signals occurred in the past 20 years, the longer-term trend was still away from the S&P and toward the Nasdaq.

While these big stocks led the market on Monday, when their influence starts to wane, it's been at least a shorter-term positive influence for the broader market.

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