Bottom line

Jason Goepfert
2020-09-04
  • Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term, so we'll have to see how Thursday's carnage sorts out; still suggesting higher prices long-term
  • Indicators were showing high optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence above 80% and evidence of skyrocketing speculation while the market environment is turning more neutral - typically a bad combination, though so far the risky conditions have failed to lead to any weakness
  • Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
  • Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
  • Indicators and studies for other markets are showing less consistent forward results, though it's not a great sign for Treasuries that hedgers are net short and optimism on metals recently became extreme with concerning 100-day analogs, with "perfect" breadth among miners recently dipping a bit.