Bottom line

Jason Goepfert

2020-06-24

Weight of evidence suggests flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term and higher prices long-term
Indicators are showing excessive optimism, as Dumb Money Confidence was recently near 80% with isolated signs of reckless speculation, during what appears to still be an unhealthy market environment
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts and recoveries have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks nearing exhaustion, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are mixed with no strong conclusion

Jason Goepfert

2020-06-24

Weight of evidence suggests flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term and higher prices long-term
Indicators are showing excessive optimism, as Dumb Money Confidence was recently near 80% with isolated signs of reckless speculation, during what appears to still be an unhealthy market environment
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts and recoveries have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks nearing exhaustion, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are mixed with no strong conclusion