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Bottom line

Jason Goepfert
2021-01-22

The market environment is pristine, with only sporadic signs of internal deterioration, but with near-historic optimism, gains tend to be muted, with a high probability of being reversed at some point over the ensuing weeks.

  • Market environment (More info)
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Price patternNone
    2. Moving averages
    3. McClellan Summation (weak)
    4. % Stocks > 200-Day
    5. Net New Highs / Lows
    6. % of Stocks in Correction

  • Sentiment / Breadth / Other
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Big breadth (again and again) 1. Confidence near record high
    2. High-yield market still fine 2. Too much options speculation
    3. Excess liquidity is high 3. Equities high vs GDP, Assets
    4. IPO market too hot (and here)
    5. Broad overvaluation
    6. Jump in leverage

    		7. Options, penny stock surge
  • Other Sectors and Assets
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Energy (here, here, and here)1. Skewed tech (here and here)
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