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Bottom line

Jason Goepfert
2020-10-02
  • A mixed environment favors becoming defensive if optimism is high and aggressive if low; currently, there is conflicting evidence but would slightly favor becoming more aggressive should optimistic extremes recede further
  • Market environment
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Price pattern (barely)1. McClellan Summation
    2. Moving averages2. % of Stocks in Correction
    3. % Stocks > 200-Day
    4. Net New Highs / Lows
  • Sentiment / Breadth / Misc.
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Confidence rising1. Still signs of options speculation
    2. Spring thrusts, recoveries2. Equities high vs GDP, Assets
    3. Commercial hedgers net long
    4. Easing internal momentum
    5. Excess liquidity is still high
  • Other Sectors and Assets
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Energy (here and here)1. Skewed tech (here and here)

    		2. Dollar test
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