Bottom line

Jason Goepfert

2020-09-18

Weight of the evidence had been suggesting high short- to medium-term risk so we'll see how traders react to the (slight, and short-term) pattern of a lower high and lower low in the S&P 500; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Dumb Money Confidence was recently above 80% with evidence of skyrocketing speculation, typically a bad sign when combined with an unhealthy environment, though that's turning more neutral , and failures were approaching record length
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the longer-term mostly thanks to the March/April/May breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Even though volatility has dropped to record lows, investor positioning in bonds has pushed the Risk Level to a very low level; gold has formed a triangle pattern of consolidation so a break there should be telling either way

Jason Goepfert

2020-09-18

Weight of the evidence had been suggesting high short- to medium-term risk so we'll see how traders react to the (slight, and short-term) pattern of a lower high and lower low in the S&P 500; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Dumb Money Confidence was recently above 80% with evidence of skyrocketing speculation, typically a bad sign when combined with an unhealthy environment, though that's turning more neutral , and failures were approaching record length
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the longer-term mostly thanks to the March/April/May breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Even though volatility has dropped to record lows, investor positioning in bonds has pushed the Risk Level to a very low level; gold has formed a triangle pattern of consolidation so a break there should be telling either way