Bottom line

Jason Goepfert

2020-09-17

Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term, which would gather some clout if falling and holding below the lows from earlier in September; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Dumb Money Confidence was recently above 80% with evidence of skyrocketing speculation which increased during a down week, typically a bad sign when combined with an unhealthy environment, though that's turning more neutral , and failures were approaching record length
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the longer-term mostly thanks to the March/April/May breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are showing less consistent forward results

Jason Goepfert

2020-09-17

Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term, which would gather some clout if falling and holding below the lows from earlier in September; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Dumb Money Confidence was recently above 80% with evidence of skyrocketing speculation which increased during a down week, typically a bad sign when combined with an unhealthy environment, though that's turning more neutral , and failures were approaching record length
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the longer-term mostly thanks to the March/April/May breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are showing less consistent forward results