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Bottom line

Jason Goepfert
2021-01-12
  • The market environment is pristine, with only sporadic signs of internal deterioration, but with near-historic optimism, gains tend to be muted, with a high probability of being reversed at some point over the ensuing weeks.
  • Market environment (More info)
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Price pattern1. % of Stocks in Correction
    2. Moving averages
    3. McClellan Summation (weak)

    4. % Stocks > 200-Day
    5. Net New Highs / Lows

  • Sentiment / Breadth / Other
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Big breadth (again and again)1. Confidence near record high
    2. High-yield market still fine2. Too much options speculation
    3. Surging small-caps3. Equities high vs GDP, Assets
    4. Surging tech stocks
    		4. IPO market too hot (and here)
    5. Excess liquidity is high5. Broad overvaluation

    		6. Jump in leverage
  • Other Sectors and Assets
    PositivesNegatives
    1. Energy (here, here, and here)1. Skewed tech (here and here)
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