Bottom line

Jason Goepfert

2020-09-01

Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term again; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Indicators show high optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence above 80% with signs of reckless speculation during what appears to be an unhealthy market environment, historically a bad combination, though it's easing somewhat and so far the risky conditions have failed to lead to any weakness
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are showing less consistent forward results, though it's not a great sign for Treasuries that hedgers are net short and optimism on metals recently became extreme with concerning 100-day analogs, with "perfect" breadth among miners recently dipping a bit.

Jason Goepfert

2020-09-01

Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term again; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Indicators show high optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence above 80% with signs of reckless speculation during what appears to be an unhealthy market environment, historically a bad combination, though it's easing somewhat and so far the risky conditions have failed to lead to any weakness
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts, recoveries, and trend changes have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks neared exhaustion by late June, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are showing less consistent forward results, though it's not a great sign for Treasuries that hedgers are net short and optimism on metals recently became extreme with concerning 100-day analogs, with "perfect" breadth among miners recently dipping a bit.