Bottom line

Jason Goepfert

2020-07-01

Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term, though that turned more neutral as stocks pulled back recently; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Indicators showed high and declining optimism, as Dumb Money Confidence was recently near 80% with isolated signs of reckless speculation, during what appears to be an unhealthy market environment
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts and recoveries have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks nearing exhaustion, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are mixed with no strong conclusion

Jason Goepfert

2020-07-01

Weight of the evidence has been suggesting flat/lower stock prices short- to medium-term, though that turned more neutral as stocks pulled back recently; still suggesting higher prices long-term
Indicators showed high and declining optimism, as Dumb Money Confidence was recently near 80% with isolated signs of reckless speculation, during what appears to be an unhealthy market environment
Active Studies show a heavy positive skew over the medium- to long-term; breadth thrusts and recoveries have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame
Signs of extremely skewed preference for tech stocks nearing exhaustion, especially relative to industrials and financials (here and here)
Indicators and studies for other markets are mixed with no strong conclusion