And so it begins...

Hi, my name is Dean Christians, and I would like to start today's note with a heartfelt thank you to Jason, Eric, and Lisa for allowing me to share my research on the platform. I am incredibly humbled and honored to be joining such a world-class research service.

My focus will be on the following three areas:

Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM)

I'll be providing an inside look into the signal-driven approach I've built and refined over the last 20 years to identify opportunities and manage risk through my Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM). The model uses a weight-of-the-evidence approach to manage market exposure as a function of perceived risk/reward opportunities.

It is not a pure black-box model. While the model has been carefully researched and incorporates extensive historical data, it is not perfect. When I set out to build the model, I did not intend to catch every zig or zag. As we all know, successful trading and investing is a challenging endeavor. One must be willing to endure some level of drawdown in order to capture as much upside as possible. The model should act as a complementary input into your research process and nothing more. Note that these signals will be tagged with a higher level of confidence than other measures as they represent the best of the best.

Signal and indicator research

I'll also be sharing additional market signals and other big picture historical perspectives related to other indicators and models outside the realm of the TCTM. While some of these signals have very attractive risk/reward tradeoffs, they don't have enough historical data to be included in the TCTM. From time to time, I will also focus my efforts on signals in other asset classes. These will be tagged in notes with a lower level of confidence due to a small sample size that is the direct result of a lack of historical data for a given time series.

Impoving the Backtest Engine etc.

I'll be working with the team to enhance and refine our Backtest Engine to create a more robust and user-friendly subscriber experience. We hope to have this updated version available in Q1.

I want to thank our subscribers for making us a trusted research partner. Please don't ever hesitate to reach out to me should you have any questions regarding my research. I'm here to help.

Tagged As:

The post titled And so it begins... was originally published as on on 2021-01-06.

At, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.

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