Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

An Important Shanghai Rally Amid Terrible Economic Surprises

Jason Goepfert
2019-04-04
null

An important threshold

When big rallies in the Shanghai Composite failed, fewer than 90% of stocks on the exchange had managed to rise above their 200-day averages. When more than 90% did so, the rallies lasted long-term, at least over the past 17 years. That just happened again.

It’s also been a good sign when the Shanghai Composite rallies at least 30% off its low, especially when it's able to hold its gains over the next couple of weeks.

Optimistic economists

Economists in the U.S. have been too positive about our prospects. Over the past couple of months, economic reports have come in below expectations, to a worsening degree. The Citi Economic Surprise Index just hit “terrible” levels for the first time in years.

The ends of similar streaks have been bad for the dollar and good for the assets that tend to rise when it falls.

Gravity

The S&P 500 fund, SPY, gapped up and closed at a new 100-day high but well below its open. Of the 14 other times that’s happened, it added to gains over the next four sessions 4 times.

Burst bonds

On March 27 we saw that optimism on bond funds like BND was extremely high, and the Backtest Engine suggested a high likelihood of weak returns over the next week. Now that it has pulled back, the Optimism Index on BND is below 35. Other times it cycled like this, it rebounded the next day all 8 times but was mixed after that, with gains 3 times and losses 5 times two weeks later.

This post was an abridged version of our previous day's Daily Report. For full access, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.