A record gap up open
Betting markets were already projecting that equity futures would jump at the open of Monday's session in apparent relief over announced election results. The incredible vaccine announcements caused futures to skyrocket.
This is one of those few times that seem like it really is different, so relying on historical behavior is shaky. But we've been asked several times if stocks have ever gapped up this much at the open when they're projected to hit a new high.
The answer is no.
Even using S&P 500 futures back to 1982, the index has never jumped more than 2% at the open on a session when its high was the highest high in at least 52 weeks.
So strictly for what it's worth, the table below shows those times when SPY gapped up 1% or more to a new high.
Over the next 1-2 weeks, stocks consistently pulled back from the opening euphoria (returns in the table are as of the opening price the day of the gap up, i.e. this morning's opening print). Only 1 of them managed to gain more than 2% over the next 2 weeks.
More remarkably, however, over the next 3 months, SPY lost ground only 1 time out of 17 signals, and even then it was a small loss.