Data &
Technology
Research
Reports
Report Solutions
Reports Library
Actionable
Strategies
Free
Resources
Simple Backtest Calculator
Simple Seasonality Calculator
The Kelly Criterion Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
Public Research Reports
Free Webinar
Pricing
Company
About
Meet Our Team
In the News
Testimonials
Client Success Stories
Contact
Log inLoginSign up
< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

A Historic Surge in New Highs, and Reversals

Jason Goepfert
2021-05-11
The S&P 500 has had a 7-month run of setting new highs, among its best stretches ever. There has also been a big spike in the number of its members hitting 52-week highs. This comes amid odd behavior in other stocks and a surge in buying climaxes.

On Friday, nearly a third of stocks in the S&P 500 managed to hit a 52-week high on that day alone. Then it skyrocketed to a stunning 78-year high on Monday.

Even Friday's reading was so high that it had been matched by only 7 other days in more than 20 years, as we noted on Friday. The Backtest Engine shows how the index performed after the others.

Every one of the sessions preceded a loss over the next month, but those losses were front-loaded, and over the next 6-12 months, stocks rebounded.

Dating back to 1928, this is among the months with the greatest participation ever, and that's before Monday's remarkable session.

If we look for times when the S&P strung together at least 5 straight months with an all-time high, and at least 20% of its members hit a 52-week high, we can get a sense of what happened after other bouts of extreme momentum + participation.

Shorter-term returns were fine, in line with random. The S&P typically rose, and losses were relatively small. The most impressive performance was over a medium- to long-term time frame, with only a few losses, and all under 7.5% across every time frame.

This confirms most of the other studies we've looked at lately, with impressive momentum and broad participation rarely preceding large, sustained losses and bear markets. The shorter term is more of an issue, though. 

Monday was odd in many respects, not the least being another surge in stocks setting 52-week highs. More than 44% of S&P members notched a high in the morning, the most since 1943. Since 1928, there has only been a single day - January 16, 2018 - when more than 30% of stocks hit a 52-week high at the same time that fewer than 80% of them were trading above their 50-day moving averages.

This is exceptionally odd behavior.

The burst of gains and push to new highs early on Monday was reversed during the session, causing a spike in the number of stocks suffering a buying climax. This is triggered when a stock hits a 52-week high then reverses to close below the prior day's close, potentially a sign of exhaustion among buyers.

The Backtest Engine shows that this is the 6th-largest number of climaxes in a single day since the inception of SPY.

Every time more than 95 stocks suffered a buying climax, the S&P 500 showed a loss over the next 1-2 months. Again, though, there were few losses over the next 6-12 months, and they were relatively small.

Monday's session emphasized the high potential risk and low probable reward that buyers are facing right now. This is mostly a concern for those with a time frame of weeks, however. So far, the type of activity and behavior we've seen has typically preceded gains over longer time frames of 6-12 months.

Sorry, you don't have access to this report

Upgrade your subscription plan to get access
Go to Dasboard
DATA &
TECHnologies
IndicatorEdge
‍
BackTestEdge
‍
Other Tools
‍
DataEdge API
RESEARCH
reports
Research Solution
‍
Reports Library
‍
actionable
Strategies
Trading Strategies
‍
Smart Stock Scanner
‍
FREE
RESOUrCES
Simple Backtest
Calculator
Simple Seasonality
Calculator
The Kelly Criterion
Calculator
Sentiment Geo Map
‍
Public Research Reports
‍
Free Webinar
COMPANY
‍
About
‍
Meet our Team
‍
In the News
‍
Testimonials
‍
Client Success Stories
Pricing
Bundle pricing
‍
Announcements
‍
FAQ
© 2024 Sundial Capital Research Inc. All rights reserved.
Setsail Marketing
TermsPrivacyAffiliate Program
Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.