A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge

  • Jason Goepfert

    Jason Goepfert

    Published: 2019-06-10 at 10:09:03 CDT


We saw on Thursday that a big miss in the ADP report possibly meant a big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report today, and if it dove to a 5-year low, would be a bad sign for stocks. The report missed, but wasn't bad enough to trigger the 5-year low. So at least there's that.

But the report did miss expectations by 100k, one of the larger oops in the past 20 years. It hasn't had a consistently negative bias for stocks, though.

Breadth Review

There was a further surge in stocks within the S&P 500 that hit 52-week highs on Thursday. More than 15% of stocks did so, the first time in a year and a half.

There have only been 5 other times since 1990 when it took a year or more to achieve this many new highs within the index. If we look at the risk/reward table, only that failure in 2002 shows any appreciable risk (maximum loss) at any point even up to a year later.

Negative Energy

Sentiment on some of the energy contracts is nearing or at pessimistic levels. These markets tend to get "stuck" for weeks or months at a time, so it's less reliable than other markets.

For heating oil, optimism is at such a low point that it coincided with rallies in recent years.

But long-term it's been quite a bit less reliable.

This post was an abridged version of our previous day's Daily Report. For full access, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.

The post titled A Big Jobs Miss As Highs Surge was originally published as on SentimenTrader.com on 2019-06-10.

At SentimenTrader.com, our service is not focused on market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence. Learn more about our service , research, models and indicators.

Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute analysis of market action.

Not ready to signup up for a free trial yet?

Signup for our Daily Lite email to receive highlights of our daily report, research and studies.

RSS Feed

Subscribe to the Blog RSS feed

Recent Blog Posts

As mentioned in...

Brought to you by:

Sundial Capital Research Logo