SentimenTrader Blog


2020-05-23 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

This week saw another jump in speculative activity, especially among small options traders. That's worrying, as the rally has flattened out while below the 200-day average on the S&P 500. There were a few positives, though, like the continued recovery in tech shares and Monday's additional breadth thrust.

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2020-05-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Every week for the past 12 weeks, investors have pulled money from overseas equity mutual funds and ETFs. It's on a scale now that rivals the worst of the 2008 financial crisis. Domestic funds have seen less outflow on a relative basis.; The S&P 500 has been stuck in a range for a month, above its medium-term 50-day moving average but below its long-term 200-day average. Based on other long streaks of being stuck between time frames, there has been a higher likelihood it will break the streak by falling below its 50-day average. But future returns were weak, no matter which way it broke.

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2020-05-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Every week for the past 12 weeks, investors have pulled money from overseas equity mutual funds and ETFs. It's on a scale now that rivals the worst of the 2008 financial crisis. Domestic funds have seen less outflow on a relative basis.

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2020-05-22 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Over the past few sessions, traders have turned over less than half the number of put options as call options, a sign of optimism.

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2020-05-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The S&P 500 has been stuck in a range for a month, above its medium-term 50-day moving average but below its long-term 200-day average. Based on other long streaks of being stuck between time frames, there has been a higher likelihood it will break the streak by falling below its 50-day average. But future returns were weak, no matter which way it broke.

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2020-05-22 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Growth stocks have massively outperformed value stocks during the current stock market rally. Can we expect growth to underperform in the future?

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2020-05-22 | Troy Bombardia | Premium



2020-05-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in months, sentiment is becoming equal between "smart money" and "dumb money" indicators. When that happens and stocks are still in longer-term downtrends, it has tended to lead to poor returns. The biggest caveat to that is if buyers persist shorter-term, it has indicated powerful longer-term recoveries.; Over the past 3 days, the Equity-only Put/Call Ratio has been below 0.5, meaning options traders turned over half has many puts as calls, typically a sign of optimism. Stocks have struggled when the ratio was this low over a 3-day period, and it hasn't happened since 2002 when the S&P 500 was below its 200-day average.

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2020-05-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in months, sentiment is becoming equal between "smart money" and "dumb money" indicators. When that happens and stocks are still in longer-term downtrends, it has tended to lead to poor returns. The biggest caveat to that is if buyers persist shorter-term, it has indicated powerful longer-term recoveries.

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2020-05-21 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

Articles mentioning the "fear of missing out" have spiked even as the S&P 500 hasn't been able to close above its 200-day average. It neared that average three weeks ago and so far has been unable to break through.

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