SentimenTrader Blog


2020-02-18 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Over the past 6 weeks, options traders have bought a record number of speculative call options, even accounting for protective put purchases; In the past month, high beta stocks have dropped while low volatility ones have jumped 5%; The University of Michigan survey shows a record % of consumers are 100% sure of a rally; Euro optimism is very low

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2020-02-18 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Never been easierAccording to Bloomberg data, this is among the easiest times ever for investors. Financial conditions are about as good as they get.the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has been rising along with stocks. While that’s something of a tautology since the FCI includes stocks in the calculation, it’s not a driving force. Per Bloomberg: “The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index tracks the overall level of financial stress in the U.S. money, bond, and equity ...

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2020-02-15 | Jason Goepfert | Premium

We've seen some crazy signs of speculative activity pop up over the past month or so. Retail investor activity has skyrocketed to record highs, stocks are gapping up at the open like few times in history, and some large stocks are witnessing parabolic price gains.But nothing can compare to options traders.This past week, they outdid themselves. For the week ending February 14, traders bought to open nearly 24 million call options. That's the most in history. And they didn't want to miss out ...

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2020-02-15 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here's my market outlook:Long term risk:reward (e.g. 1-5 year basis) doesn’t favor bulls. Valuations are high, but valuations can remain high for years before stocks crash.Fundamentals (6-12 months): still bullish because there is no significant U.S. macro deterioration.Technicals (1-3 months): mixed/bearish Fundamentals (6-12 months)The economy and the stock market move in the same direction in the long term. Hence, leading economic indicators are also long term leading indicators for the ...

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2020-02-14 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is nearing "perfect" conditions; Their Index + measure, which includes "bubble" assets, just hit a record high; None of our core indicators showed pessimism over the past 3 days; The S&P has gone ~6 months without a 5% pullback; Hedgers keep selling cocoa, buying copper

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2020-02-14 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Seven-figure surgeRetail traders are becoming manic about trading stocks. The constant drumbeat of new highs combined with zero commissions has proved to be irresistible, and a record number of them have account balances worthy of bragging rights.According to Fidelity, there has been a surge in the number of accounts worth more than a $1 million.The rate of growth over the past year is among the most impressive we've ever seen. The only time that can compare is in 2009, but that was coming ...

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2020-02-14 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here’s what I’m looking at:Bollinger Bands and momentumAs Seth Golden noted, the S&P has gone many days without a -5% pullback and is currently more than 2 standard deviations above its 200 day average.While it could be assumed that this is bearish for stocks, that hasn't always been the case. There's 2 sides to the "market has rallied too much" coin:Market has rallied too much, so it'll pullback. Or...Market's momentum is very strong, it'll "eventually" pullback and then rally even further ...

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2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The S&P 500 has set an all-time high on a third of days so far in 2020; There is a record number of Fidelity 401k millionaire accounts, after a near-record rate of growth; The past 3 days have seen a lot of call buying; The VIX keeps staying under 19

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2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert | Study

Our proxy model of the CNN Fear & Greed index is showing much less enthusiasm now than it did in January when it reached an exceptionally high level. It’s a sort of behavioral divergence. This hasn't triggered very often but upside was capped when it did.And over the past year, the Hindenburg Omen on the NYSE has triggered 7 times. There have been larger clusters, but this still ranks as a tumultuous period. Again, this typically resulted in poor returns.See this report for more detail.

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2020-02-13 | Jason Goepfert | Study

Since the market entered its momentum phase in November, stocks have been able to consistently record all-time highs.A bunch of those have come just in 2020. So far this year, more than a third of the days have closed at an all-time high. Through the first 30 days of any year, this ranks among the best.See this report for more detail.

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