SentimenTrader Blog


2019-10-23 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Over the past month, NYSE volume has dropped relative to total market cap, even as the S&P 500 has climbed to within 1% of a high; The Up Volume Ratio has cycled from below 40% to above 60% for the 3rd time in 90 days, a nearly unprecedented cluster of breadth thrusts; The S&P's best 6-month analogs; Margin debt as a % of market cap hit a 13-year low

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2019-10-23 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here's what I'm looking at:CorrelationsThe U.S. stock market has swung around over the past 6 months, plenty of market watchers have called for crashes/surges, but overall, the stock market has gone nowhere. This outcome was not unexpected. After a big rally in January-April, it's hard for stocks to keep rallying at the same pace it did earlier this year. But now that the stock market has been consolidating in a narrow range for months, can it breakout on the upside? Will stocks rally into ...

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2019-10-22 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

Hedge funds have trailed the S&P total return so much, they may be a buying force into year-end; Value stocks trailed growth over the past 3 years by one of the largest amounts since 1928; We've now had the 3rd breadth thrust in the past 90 days; Small cap stocks have been stuck for 9 months

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2019-10-22 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Another one bites the dustThe Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® is a popular indicator to watch for potential recessions ahead, and the latest reading shows a 2nd consecutive drop month-over-month.The LEI hasn’t gone much of anywhere for a year, showing signs of plateauing. Its Bollinger Band has tightened to a near-record degree, showing that the ...

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2019-10-22 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Here's what I'm looking at:TLTWith bonds pulling back, TLT's Optix is trending downwards. Its 5 day average is now below 22:While it's easy to assume that this is bullish for bonds, it hasn't always been the case. The following demonstrates what happened next to TLT when Optix's 5 day average fell below 22, while TLT was in an uptrend (above its 200 dma):Treasury bonds typically fell over the next 2 months.Leading vs Coincident IndicatorsOne final word about the Conference Board's set of ...

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2019-10-21 | Jason Goepfert | Daily Report

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) showed a 2nd consecutive drop after months of gains, and shows signs of forming a long-term plateau; The Bloomberg Buying Climate survey shows that consumers think now is the best time ever to buy; Homebuilder sentiment just hit a 20-month high

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2019-10-20 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The U.S. stock market continues to swing up and down each day near all-time highs. Here's my market outlook:Long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls. Valuations are high, but valuations can remain high for years before stocks crash.Fundamentals (6-12 months): still bullish because there is no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but this could change IF macro data deteriorates significantly over the next few monthsTechnicals (3-6 months): neutral/bullishTechnicals (1-2 months): no clear ...

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2019-10-19 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

This is Part 2 of a weekly update on the U.S. stock market's long term fundamentals. Part 1 can be found here. Fundamentals 1-3 years: market timingI don't try to predict the future of the economy. Plenty of very smart people try, and when you add up the successes+failures, the results are usually no better than a 50/50 coin toss. That's why I focus instead on leading economic indicators. Look at what has already happened instead of predicting the future.The economy drives corporate ...

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2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

I won't be publishing a Daily Report this afternoon, so this post is being sent as a Bulletin to all users. This is similar to what is included in the premium notes published most days. As always, you can find most other parts of the reports online, mostly in the tabs under the Market Overview section of the Dashboard.The notes by both Troy and I focus on more types of data than we post in the Daily Report, diving further into fundamental data, particularly those data points being discussed ...

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2019-10-18 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Bond boondoggleBond traders are often considered the smart money, or at least smarter than equity investors. It might be an issue now because high-yield bonds have been dragging a bit. And leveraged loans have been hit even harder.But it’s not as bad as it appears on the surface, and even then, it has not been a consistent warning sign for investors.This ...

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