The S&P 500 has finally closed above its 50 dma, its medium term trend. A rather common belief is that a breakdown below the 50 dma leads to a follow-through on the downside, although empirical evidence proves that this belief is little better than a 50-50 coin toss.However, there is somewhat of an edge when such breakdowns occur after a long streak:When the S&P closed below its 50 dma for the first time in more than 100 days, the S&P usually rallied over the next 3 months. This is an ...Signup / Login to read this post
The Conference Board LEI's latest reading demonstrates that the U.S. economy continues to improve. We can see this in some of the LEI's components, such as initial claims and ISM new orders. The LEI, which crashed in March, still has a long way to go before it makes a new all-time high. But still, this is an improvement. Historical cases in which the Conference Board LEI crashed to a 5 year low and then increased 4 months in a row led to more gains over the next 6-12 months. That's primarily ...
Over the past 30 days, gold has not made a 30-day high OR a 30-day low. It's just kind of sat there, forming a consolidation 'triangle pattern' after setting new highs in August. Prior triangles typically resolved to the upside, but the next couple of weeks proved key. This is a big tell for miners, which are also consolidating after one of the most overbought readings in decades.; Investors' receptions to IPOs have not diminished lately; they've picked up if anything. The immediate success of the Snowflake offering caused the number of IPO "run-ups" to reach a dozen, the most in 20 years. Other metrics show only 1999-2000 as a comparison, as unlikely as it would be to see a repeat of the aftermath.
Over the past 30 days, gold has not made a 30-day high OR a 30-day low. It's just kind of sat there, forming a consolidation 'triangle pattern' after setting new highs in August. Prior triangles typically resolved to the upside, but the next couple of weeks proved key. This is a big tell for miners, which are also consolidating after one of the most overbought readings in decades.
Investors' receptions to IPOs have not diminished lately; they've picked up if anything. The immediate success of the Snowflake offering caused the number of IPO "run-ups" to reach a dozen, the most in 20 years. Other metrics show only 1999-2000 as a comparison, as unlikely as it would be to see a repeat of the aftermath.
Corporate insiders in S&P 500 companies have pulled back on their buying activity, causing the velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio to plunge.
After a spike in July, precious metals have calmed down and mostly swung sideways. Some bullish traders see this as a consolidation pattern before gold and silver surge to new highs. Perhaps. Or perhaps not. Chart patterns can always be interpreted in 2 ways. (The beauty of charts is that you see what you want to see.)Regardless, the surge and subsequent flatlining in gold and silver caused their respective Bollinger Bands to widen, and then narrow. Bollinger Bands Width, which looks at the ...
Sentiment across the world is subsiding as various stock markets pull back. Canada Optix's 10 day moving average has fallen to the lowest level in almost half a year, ending a long streak of elevated sentiment.When this happened in the past, the S&P/TSX Composite's future returns were mixed:Across the Pacific, Australia Optix is also no longer elevated for the first time since this post-pandemic bull market began.When this happened in the past, Australian equities usually pulled back over ...
A few days ago I looked at the potential for value to outperform growth. As Bloomberg noted, this month so far has seen the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperform the market cap-weighted S&P 500 by the most in over a decade. This signals a potential reversal in relative performance. Perhaps the era of a few large tech stocks lifting broad indices is coming to an end:Historical cases in which the market cap / equal weighted ratio dropped -3% in a month usually led to more S&P 500 equal weighted ...
Buying among smart money corporate insiders spiked during the spring. It moderated since then, especially in technology stocks. Lately, buying interest has dropped off and the 4-week Velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped well into negative territory.
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