SentimenTrader Blog


2020-10-22 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes is nearing its 200-day average for the 1st time in more than 200 days. This has typically not indicated a long-term change in trend, as the relentless bias toward lower rates knee-capped any potential rallies.

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2020-10-22 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

The ratio of gold to copper has dropped to a 6-month low, the 1st time in months that the ratio of "safety" to "economic growth" has hit an extreme.

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2020-10-22 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

As Bloomberg noted, the S&P 500 equal weighted index is trying to make a comeback after years of underperformance. The equal weighted index is on track to outperform the market cap weighted S&P 500 by more than 1.2% for 2 months in a row:This is the first time this has happened in more than 7 years. When this happened in the past, the S&P 500 equal weighted index usually pushed higher over the next 3 months......whereas the S&P 500 market cap weighted index did not perform that well over the ...

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2020-10-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in well over a year, the ratio of gold to copper has dropped to a 6-month low. This suggests that traders see more value in economic growth (copper) than safety (gold). After other times the ratio hit a 6-month low, stocks did okay, while bonds, and the metals themselves, tended to drop.

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2020-10-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in well over a year, the ratio of gold to copper has dropped to a 6-month low. This suggests that traders see more value in economic growth (copper) than safety (gold). After other times the ratio hit a 6-month low, stocks did okay, while bonds, and the metals themselves, tended to drop.

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2020-10-21 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

For the first time in months, "smart money" commercial hedgers went net short the U.S. dollar.

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2020-10-21 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

Building permits have jumped more than 30%, a good long-term sign for stocks. Optimism on natural gas, copper, and cotton has reached extreme levels.

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2020-10-20 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The latest Barron's survey of big money managers shows that they've turned optimistic on stocks for the 1st time since October 2018. Stocks have shown better forward returns when these managers were optimistic than when they were pessimistic.; For the first time in months, commercial hedgers turned negative on the dollar. They'd been net long for more than three months, the longest stretch in almost a decade. Other times when hedgers flipped from net long to short, the dollar struggled in the months ahead.

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2020-10-20 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The latest Barron's survey of big money managers shows that they've turned optimistic on stocks for the 1st time since October 2018. Stocks have shown better forward returns when these managers were optimistic than when they were pessimistic.

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2020-10-20 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

For the first time in months, commercial hedgers turned negative on the dollar. They'd been net long for more than three months, the longest stretch in almost a decade. Other times when hedgers flipped from net long to short, the dollar struggled in the months ahead.

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