Foreign investors have come back to the U.S. after a year of selling aggressively, and they're mostly net sellers in other markets too, like Switzerland, France, and Japan; Hard economic data has been soaring relative to expectations, much better than soft data like surveys; Hedgers are buying sugar, selling gold; Stocks have had small changes in recent sessions
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This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Easing back inIndividual investors are easing back into stocks. The latest AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from extreme pessimism to modest optimism.A raging buy signal it was not, but the S&P 500’s returns going forward were above random on all time frames, and well above over the medium-term. The only true failures were during the ...
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The McClellan Summation Index - a long term look at the momentum of the market's breadth - has been positive for 169 days. And with the McClellan Summation Index at 760 right now (solidly above zero), this streak is unlikely to end anytime soon.See this premium note for more.
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When the Economic Surprise Index rose to its highest level in 200 days in the past, the S&P usually did well over the next month.See this premium note for more.
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The past few days have seen low volatility despite a nonstop stream of things to "worry about". Here's what I'm looking at:Economic SurpriseEconomic data continues to beat analysts' expectations, causing the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index to rise to its highest level since early-2018. This is moreso due to analysts' depressed expectations than due to terrific economic data.When the Economic Surprise Index rose to its highest level in 200 days in the past, the S&P usually did well over the ...
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The AAII survey shows that the Bull Ratio has cycled from below 33% to above 55%; Implied volatility on the Russell 2000 (RVX) is much higher than for the S&P 500 (VIX); FedEx suffered a historical drop on Wednesday; Hard economic releases are showing better surprises than soft ones
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This is an abridged version of our recent reports and notes. For immediate access with no obligation, sign up for a 30-day free trial now.Momentum stock shockAfter last week’s huge drop in momentum stocks, and shift toward value from growth, those shares fell a bit more and have since rebounded. The two-sided volatility is notable and is something that preceded the last two recessions.Going back to 1928, similar jumps in volatility among momentum stocks were not necessarily a good indicator ...
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Here's what's piquing my interest so far today. Indexes are nearing new highs, but the number of securities also hitting highs is lagging pretty badly. Troy mentioned this the other day and it may be even more of a shorter-term worry for the next couple of weeks if it continues.Volatility DivergenceThe WSJ notes that traders are pricing in higher (and rising) volatility for small-cap shares, while lower expectations for larger-cap ones. That has caused the "VIX" for the Russell 2000 to ...
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The stock market remains near an all-time high after the Fed cut rates. Personally, I wouldn't spend too much time thinking about how the Fed's actions will impact the stock market. Plenty of people try to guess, and when you add up their successes + failures you realize that their guess isn't much better than a 50/50 bet. Overall, follow the data and don't trade the news. Here's what I'm looking at:HousingAs I said on Tuesday, housing weakness was a key contributor to the Macro Index's ...
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Volatility in momentum stocks has risen to more than 2.5 standard deviations above normal, something that has been a worrying sign since 1928; Foreign investors in U.S. stocks have improved sentiment, buying heavily after a year of selling; The McClellan Oscillator on the Nikkei 225 is near a record high; ETF traders are buying
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Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the sentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
