The S&P 500 has triggered a Golden Cross, with its 50-day average crossing above its 200-day average. That in itself isn't much of a signal, but this has reversed what had been a very negative spread between the 50- and 200-day averages. When this happened since 1950, it coincided with the end of every major bear market. At the same time, the dollar suffered a Death Cross.; Most major technology stock indexes have been hitting new highs in recent days. A small warning is popping up in the percentage of members of these indexes that are holding above their 50-day averages, which has been declining over the past month. This kind of divergence has preceded some rocky markets for tech over the next 1-3 months.Signup / Login to read this post
The S&P 500 has triggered a Golden Cross, with its 50-day average crossing above its 200-day average. That in itself isn't much of a signal, but this has reversed what had been a very negative spread between the 50- and 200-day averages. When this happened since 1950, it coincided with the end of every major bear market. At the same time, the dollar suffered a Death Cross.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 recently closed at an all-time high. At the same time, an equal-weight version of the index closed at a record relative low.
Most major technology stock indexes have been hitting new highs in recent days. A small warning is popping up in the percentage of members of these indexes that are holding above their 50-day averages, which has been declining over the past month. This kind of divergence has preceded some rocky markets for tech over the next 1-3 months.
The latest headline from Bloomberg says it all about Chinese stock market sentiment. 
Over the past 3 months, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a historic rally. Even so, options traders are still pricing in a relatively high amount of volatility. Using a synthetic VIX back to 1962, we can see that big rallies accompanied by high volatility had a consistent tendency to lead to even-higher prices over the medium- to long-term.; Even as the Nasdaq 100 powers to new highs, it is being driven by the largest stocks. The equal-weight version of the index just hit a new low relative to the cap-weight version.
Over the past 3 months, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a historic rally. Even so, options traders are still pricing in a relatively high amount of volatility. Using a synthetic VIX back to 1962, we can see that big rallies accompanied by high volatility had a consistent tendency to lead to even-higher prices over the medium- to long-term.
Even as the Nasdaq 100 powers to new highs, it is being driven by the largest stocks. The equal-weight version of the index just hit a new low relative to the cap-weight version.
The forward price/earnings ratio for the Russell 2000 is at a 25-year high, thanks to a large number of those stocks losing money.
Yesterday I looked at the surge in Chinese and HK stocks. Taiwanese stocks are surging as well, and 23% of them are now overbought (RS > 70).Similar historical cases of widespread overbought conditions sometimes led to a short term pullback in Taiwanese equities, particularly in recent years.
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