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Energy stocks have lost 60% more from their highs than did the broader market. That's the worst of any sector going back to 1928. Usually, a sector's relative losses have stopped at about 35%. Other times a sector's investors suffered that much relative to the S&P 500, it outperformed over the next 1-3 years.
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The VIX has jumped more than 10% on 2 out of 3 days, as VIX options traders bet that it's going to decline in the months ahead.
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Yesterday's large one day drop in global equities pushed many stocks below their lower Bollinger Bands.
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Options data shows that "smart money" traders are increasingly betting against a persistent rise in the VIX "fear gauge". When the VIX Sentiment model is as high as it is now, the VIX almost always declined in the months ahead.
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Options data shows that "smart money" traders are increasingly betting against a persistent rise in the VIX "fear gauge". When the VIX Sentiment model is as high as it is now, the VIX almost always declined in the months ahead.
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In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, as margin debt rose despite losses in equities.
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VIX is slowly rising as we approach the election in a week. VIX's Term Structure is now in backwardation, which is exactly what happened in the runup to the 2016 election.
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Over the past 6 months, mergers and acquisitions among oil & gas companies have tailed off enough to reach a 17-year low. Relative to all M&A activity, it's declined to a 20-year low.; In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, despite those holdings losing value. As a result, total margin debt increased to a near-record level, jumping more than 35% from the spring lows.
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Over the past 6 months, mergers and acquisitions among oil & gas companies have tailed off enough to reach a 17-year low. Relative to all M&A activity, it's declined to a 20-year low.
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In September, investors borrowed more against their stock holdings, despite those holdings losing value. As a result, total margin debt increased to a near-record level, jumping more than 35% from the spring lows.
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>Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
