The percentage of gold mining stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages hit a low level and is curling up. That has been a decent sign for forward returns but longer-term breadth measures are still showing weak breadth in the sector.
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The sugar market is up 100% since its Spring 2020 low. However, it's traded sideways since late February and may face some seasonal and sentiment headwinds in the months ahead. In this piece, we spell out the details.
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The percentage of gold mining stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages hit a low level and is curling up. That has been a decent sign for forward returns but longer-term breadth measures are still showing weak breadth in the sector.
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The S&P 500 recorded a new all-time on Tuesday, 8/3/21. Let's review how the new high compares to history as measured by a market breadth composite.
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There is a big difference in consumer surveys, with the Confidence high but Sentiment relatively low.
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Consumer confidence is sky-high right now, but consumer sentiment is less optimistic. The divergence between the two is the highest in history. Other divergences mostly led to higher stocks and a lower dollar.
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In the long run, the market moves based on fundamentals. And a trend in motion tends to stay in motion. So, it should not surprise us that a simple combination of fundamentals and price trends can be beneficial in keeping us on the right side of the market.
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The percentage of country ETFs underperforming the S&P 500 has reached a level that implies negative returns for the MSCI ACWI World Index ex USA. Let's review a buy signal concept that seeks to identify a reversal in the relative trends.
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Consumer confidence is sky-high right now, but consumer sentiment is less optimistic. The divergence between the two is the highest in history. Other divergences mostly led to higher stocks and a lower dollar.
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According to Bloomberg data, hard economic releases have greatly disappointed economists lately, ending a long streak of positive surprises.
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Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
