SentimenTrader Blog


2020-09-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of falling into a correction, or around a 10% decline from its recent peak. When this happens quickly after a new high, forward returns were sketchy over the medium-term. This is the 4th such pullback in 3 years, tied with only 2 other periods since 1928.; Last week, the smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally, undeterred by what was likely some catastrophic losses lately. Speculative activity remains above any prior peak. Estimates of gamma exposure have plunged, a potential positive, but it's not as reliable as options activity.

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2020-09-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of falling into a correction, or around a 10% decline from its recent peak. When this happens quickly after a new high, forward returns were sketchy over the medium-term. This is the 4th such pullback in 3 years, tied with only 2 other periods since 1928.

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2020-09-21 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Over the past 30 days, gold has formed a 'triangle pattern' of consolidation with no new highs OR new lows.

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2020-09-21 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Last week, the smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally, undeterred by what was likely some catastrophic losses lately. Speculative activity remains above any prior peak. Estimates of gamma exposure have plunged, a potential positive, but it's not as reliable as options activity.

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2020-09-19 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The S&P 500 has finally closed above its 50 dma, its medium term trend. A rather common belief is that a breakdown below the 50 dma leads to a follow-through on the downside, although empirical evidence proves that this belief is little better than a 50-50 coin toss.However, there is somewhat of an edge when such breakdowns occur after a long streak:When the S&P closed below its 50 dma for the first time in more than 100 days, the S&P usually rallied over the next 3 months. This is an ...

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2020-09-19 | Troy Bombardia | Premium

The Conference Board LEI's latest reading demonstrates that the U.S. economy continues to improve. We can see this in some of the LEI's components, such as initial claims and ISM new orders. The LEI, which crashed in March, still has a long way to go before it makes a new all-time high. But still, this is an improvement. Historical cases in which the Conference Board LEI crashed to a 5 year low and then increased 4 months in a row led to more gains over the next 6-12 months. That's primarily ...

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2020-09-18 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Over the past 30 days, gold has not made a 30-day high OR a 30-day low. It's just kind of sat there, forming a consolidation 'triangle pattern' after setting new highs in August. Prior triangles typically resolved to the upside, but the next couple of weeks proved key. This is a big tell for miners, which are also consolidating after one of the most overbought readings in decades.; Investors' receptions to IPOs have not diminished lately; they've picked up if anything. The immediate success of the Snowflake offering caused the number of IPO "run-ups" to reach a dozen, the most in 20 years. Other metrics show only 1999-2000 as a comparison, as unlikely as it would be to see a repeat of the aftermath.

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2020-09-18 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Over the past 30 days, gold has not made a 30-day high OR a 30-day low. It's just kind of sat there, forming a consolidation 'triangle pattern' after setting new highs in August. Prior triangles typically resolved to the upside, but the next couple of weeks proved key. This is a big tell for miners, which are also consolidating after one of the most overbought readings in decades.

Signup / Login to read this post



2020-09-18 | Jason Goepfert | Basic

Investors' receptions to IPOs have not diminished lately; they've picked up if anything. The immediate success of the Snowflake offering caused the number of IPO "run-ups" to reach a dozen, the most in 20 years. Other metrics show only 1999-2000 as a comparison, as unlikely as it would be to see a repeat of the aftermath.

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2020-09-18 | Jason Goepfert | Lite

Corporate insiders in S&P 500 companies have pulled back on their buying activity, causing the velocity of the Buy/Sell Ratio to plunge.

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