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For the first time in more than 4 months, there were more 52-week lows than 52-week highs among securities traded on the NYSE. Stocks struggle when this figure is negative; the sole caveat is that after a long streak of positive momentum, the first drop into negative territory has preceded good medium-term returns.
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In recent years, the S&P 500 has been highly correlated to changes in the Nasdaq 100. That has plunged lately as the market has shrugged off the influence of big tech stocks. Other times when the correlation between them dropped, it was a shorter-term weight on tech.
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The smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally last week, even as stocks declined.
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More and more of the broad indices' components are in a medium term downtrend, thereby dragging down the indices themselves. For example, nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500's members are now below their 50 dma:When this happened from 1990-present, the S&P 500's forward returns were not much more bullish than random: However, this is also were many of the S&P 500's short term pullbacks stopped in the past 10 years:A similar story is going on in the NASDAQ. After a record % of its members were ...
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The past few months saw crazy speculative buying and inflows into tech stocks. It was a truly winner-take-all environment in which everyone crowded into a select few companies which have done well under the current pandemic environment.This is now starting to unravel (as all speculative binges do). Bloomberg noted that QQQ saw massive daily outflows on the 18th, followed by massive daily inflows on the 21st.Historical days that saw large daily inflows were followed by mixed returns for the ...
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The S&P 500 is on the cusp of falling into a correction, or around a 10% decline from its recent peak. When this happens quickly after a new high, forward returns were sketchy over the medium-term. This is the 4th such pullback in 3 years, tied with only 2 other periods since 1928.; Last week, the smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally, undeterred by what was likely some catastrophic losses lately. Speculative activity remains above any prior peak. Estimates of gamma exposure have plunged, a potential positive, but it's not as reliable as options activity.
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The S&P 500 is on the cusp of falling into a correction, or around a 10% decline from its recent peak. When this happens quickly after a new high, forward returns were sketchy over the medium-term. This is the 4th such pullback in 3 years, tied with only 2 other periods since 1928.
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Over the past 30 days, gold has formed a 'triangle pattern' of consolidation with no new highs OR new lows.
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Last week, the smallest of options traders increased their bets on a market rally, undeterred by what was likely some catastrophic losses lately. Speculative activity remains above any prior peak. Estimates of gamma exposure have plunged, a potential positive, but it's not as reliable as options activity.
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The S&P 500 has finally closed above its 50 dma, its medium term trend. A rather common belief is that a breakdown below the 50 dma leads to a follow-through on the downside, although empirical evidence proves that this belief is little better than a 50-50 coin toss.However, there is somewhat of an edge when such breakdowns occur after a long streak:When the S&P closed below its 50 dma for the first time in more than 100 days, the S&P usually rallied over the next 3 months. This is an ...
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>Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
