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The yield on 10-year Treasury notes is nearing its 200-day average for the 1st time in more than 200 days. This has typically not indicated a long-term change in trend, as the relentless bias toward lower rates knee-capped any potential rallies.
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The ratio of gold to copper has dropped to a 6-month low, the 1st time in months that the ratio of "safety" to "economic growth" has hit an extreme.
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As Bloomberg noted, the S&P 500 equal weighted index is trying to make a comeback after years of underperformance. The equal weighted index is on track to outperform the market cap weighted S&P 500 by more than 1.2% for 2 months in a row:This is the first time this has happened in more than 7 years. When this happened in the past, the S&P 500 equal weighted index usually pushed higher over the next 3 months......whereas the S&P 500 market cap weighted index did not perform that well over the ...
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For the first time in well over a year, the ratio of gold to copper has dropped to a 6-month low. This suggests that traders see more value in economic growth (copper) than safety (gold). After other times the ratio hit a 6-month low, stocks did okay, while bonds, and the metals themselves, tended to drop.
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For the first time in well over a year, the ratio of gold to copper has dropped to a 6-month low. This suggests that traders see more value in economic growth (copper) than safety (gold). After other times the ratio hit a 6-month low, stocks did okay, while bonds, and the metals themselves, tended to drop.
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For the first time in months, "smart money" commercial hedgers went net short the U.S. dollar.
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Building permits have jumped more than 30%, a good long-term sign for stocks. Optimism on natural gas, copper, and cotton has reached extreme levels.
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The latest Barron's survey of big money managers shows that they've turned optimistic on stocks for the 1st time since October 2018. Stocks have shown better forward returns when these managers were optimistic than when they were pessimistic.; For the first time in months, commercial hedgers turned negative on the dollar. They'd been net long for more than three months, the longest stretch in almost a decade. Other times when hedgers flipped from net long to short, the dollar struggled in the months ahead.
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The latest Barron's survey of big money managers shows that they've turned optimistic on stocks for the 1st time since October 2018. Stocks have shown better forward returns when these managers were optimistic than when they were pessimistic.
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For the first time in months, commercial hedgers turned negative on the dollar. They'd been net long for more than three months, the longest stretch in almost a decade. Other times when hedgers flipped from net long to short, the dollar struggled in the months ahead.
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>Sundial Capital Research is an independent investment research firm dedicated to the application of mass psychology to the financial markets. Sundial publishes the SentimenTrader.com website.
Our focus is not market timing per se, but rather risk management. That may be a distinction without a difference, but it's how we approach the markets. We study signs that suggest it is time to raise or lower market exposure as a function of risk relative to probable reward. It is all about risk-adjusted expectations given existing evidence.
