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Will coffee futures rebound? Don't bet on it

Jay Kaeppel
2025-07-29

Since peaking in late April, coffee futures have plunged 28%. Could things get even worse? Absolutely. Coffee futures are prone to epic rallies and equally devastating declines. While we can't predict exactly where coffee goes from here, a signal from our Optix indicator suggests that traders remain focused on the short side of this volatile market.

The chart and table below highlight all dates when the 100-day moving average of our Coffee Optix indicator crossed below 65, and the subsequent performance for coffee futures. As usual, there is "an exception to the rule (the September 2021 signal)." But beyond that, six and twelve-month results bode poorly for the prospects of a significant reversal in coffee futures.

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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.