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Weight of the evidence

Jason Goepfert
2020-06-16

The suggestion is flat/lower prices short- to medium-term, and higher prices long-term. Indicators are currently showing excessive optimism, with Dumb Money Confidence was recently near 80% and has gyrated since then. Monday's reversal and Tuesday's follow through haven't changed the odds despite looking good on a chart. The Active Studies show that when we look at stocks from various perspectives, there is a heavy positive skew over the medium-term long-term. Recently, there have been troubling signs of reckless speculation, but the breadth thrusts and recoveries have an almost unblemished record at preceding higher prices over a 6-12 month time frame. Indicators and studies for other markets are mixed with no strong conclusion.

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