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Volatility Regime Change As Utilities Try

Jason Goepfert
2018-03-06
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This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.

Regime change

After going more than 400 days without a major cluster of volatility, stocks have moved 1% most of the past 30 days.

That is commonly believed to suggest a trend change but has not been consistent. It was especially bullish when we saw a burst of 1% days like this following an extended period without one.

Utilities are trying

Utilities were the largest sector winner on Monday with a nearly 2% gain. That comes during an established downtrend in the sector. How it performed in the short-term following these surges was a good predictor of its longer-term returns.

Regime change, part two

Related to the above, the S&P 500 has gyrated more than 1% on 6 out of the last 7 sessions. It had recently gone more than 80 days without even a single 1% move, the first time in its history it has undergone such a dramatic change in volatility.

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