VIX deviation from seasonal trend

With Nvidia's earnings due after the close today, an event that will almost certainly inject some volatility depending on the outcome, I wanted to share the seasonal chart of the Volatility Index (VIX), which continues to diverge from its typical pattern. 

Although Nvidia could ignite some sparks, I suspect the real trigger for the VIX to align with its seasonal pattern could be a September letdown from the Fed.

When the VIX finished below 15 with just a handful of sessions left in August, the S&P 500 often stumbled in the following months. Still, those setbacks proved temporary, as the index rebounded in nearly every instance, rallying over the next four months all but once.

Interestingly, the most recent examples came in 2023 and 2024, producing maximum losses of 8.5% and 4.2%.