TradingEdge Weekly for November 13, 2026 - Nasdaq Correction Odds, Energy Seasonality, Liquidity Warning, Bitcoin Trend Exit, QQQ Bounce Record, NDX Sentiment Signals

by Sentimentrader

2026-11-13

For a visual breakdown of this report, please click here to watch the companion video.

Key points:

An initial 10% pullback from a 1-year high (77 occurrences in 50+ years) has win rates barely above a coin toss in the first weeks; 11 of 18 fast corrections kept falling for two weeks, and Nasdaq Optix below 5 shows a 44% two-week win rate
After XLE's 33% rally and 13% one-week plunge, breadth at 0% within an uptrend (Nov 5-6 signals) plus seasonality favorable from December 18 (TDY #243) through TDY #110 of 2027 - a 79% win rate with median win +13.5% vs median loss -6.2% - argue for watching for a buy point
The SPY Liquidity Premium's 84-day range rank went from 0 to 100 in just five sessions; after shifts completed inside 21 sessions, the S&P 500 was higher two weeks later only 30% of the time (average -1.8%) and -3.1% after three weeks
Industry % Indexes in Bear Market crossings below 10% show 3-12 month win rates in excess of 90%, and Risk On/Risk Off below 30 shows a 94% one-year win rate with a 17.43% median return - favorable for the next 12 months, but not automatic buy triggers
Hot October CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% expected) pushed Bitcoin below $74,000; the RSI model exited on Nov 10, RSI<35 signals carry a 43% two-week win rate with a -1.8% median return, and 63-day lows precede further declines 61% of the time over the next month

by Sentimentrader

2026-11-13

For a visual breakdown of this report, please click here to watch the companion video.

Key points:

An initial 10% pullback from a 1-year high (77 occurrences in 50+ years) has win rates barely above a coin toss in the first weeks; 11 of 18 fast corrections kept falling for two weeks, and Nasdaq Optix below 5 shows a 44% two-week win rate
After XLE's 33% rally and 13% one-week plunge, breadth at 0% within an uptrend (Nov 5-6 signals) plus seasonality favorable from December 18 (TDY #243) through TDY #110 of 2027 - a 79% win rate with median win +13.5% vs median loss -6.2% - argue for watching for a buy point
The SPY Liquidity Premium's 84-day range rank went from 0 to 100 in just five sessions; after shifts completed inside 21 sessions, the S&P 500 was higher two weeks later only 30% of the time (average -1.8%) and -3.1% after three weeks
Industry % Indexes in Bear Market crossings below 10% show 3-12 month win rates in excess of 90%, and Risk On/Risk Off below 30 shows a 94% one-year win rate with a 17.43% median return - favorable for the next 12 months, but not automatic buy triggers
Hot October CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% expected) pushed Bitcoin below $74,000; the RSI model exited on Nov 10, RSI<35 signals carry a 43% two-week win rate with a -1.8% median return, and 63-day lows precede further declines 61% of the time over the next month