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TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 6 - Financial sector warnings, RGDI insights, Energy sector extremes, Treasury bonds outlook, Nikkei volatility

by Sentimentrader
2026-03-06
The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model officially triggers a Risk-Off signal amid surging oil and geopolitical tensions. While short-term momentum turns bearish, long-term economic resilience keeps the structural bull market intact.

Key points:

  • The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model Triggers a Risk-Off Signal
  • Off the Beaten Path: The Gross Domestic income Edition
  • The Crazy Energy Sector
  • Five Reasons Not to be a Long-Term Investor in T-Bonds
  • The Nikkei 225 Hits the Brakes

House view:

  • Stocks:
    • Short-term: Bearish. U.S. equities are hit hard by a surge in Middle East geopolitical risk and a spike in oil prices. Both the VIX and CDX  are in unfavorable positions. The S-TCTM risk warning model has triggered an alert. Weakness during the window period will overshadow the long-term upward trend. Market breadth is weak, and risk sentiment has shifted sharply toward risk-off. This time frame covers 1-4 weeks.
    • Intermediate-term: No view. Market momentum  continues to weaken, but has not yet reached the threshold for risk-off. The market remains caught in a tug-of

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