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TradingEdge Weekly for Mar 13 - Crude oil futures, Risk On/Off Indicator shift, Market breadth signals, Financial sector insiders

by Sentimentrader
2026-03-13
A stagflation shock and soaring oil prices have triggered a formal Risk-Off regime. While narrowing breadth warns of short-term pain, history suggests these pullbacks rarely break long-term uptrends.

Key points:

  • Crude oil futures broke sharply higher amid geopolitical tensions, signaling potential reversal
  • The Risk On/Off Indicator dropped below 35%, signaling short-term market challenges
  • Market breadth signals show deterioration despite S&P 500 hovering near highs
  • Financial sector insider buying surged, hinting at potential broader market strength
  • VIX volatility spikes and McClellan Oscillator divergence highlight market friction

House view:

  • Stocks:
    • Short-term: Bearish. Currently, nearly all indicators are unfavorable, as detailed in the "Where we're at" section. U.S. equities suffer a brutal selloff amid a stagflation shock, as negative February nonfarm payrolls (-92k jobs vs. +59k expected) and a spike in oil prices trigger full risk-off mode. The index now tests its critical 200-day moving average, the long-term bull/bear line in the sand. This time frame covers 1-4 weeks.
    • Intermediate-term: Bearish. Market momentum  continues to weaken and is now in a risk-off state. T

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