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TradingEdge Weekly for Jul 3 - risk-on signals, dollar strength, strong Q2, crude drawdown, bond sentiment, GLD setup, financials broadening

by Sentimentrader
2026-07-03
While a strong Q2 and robust risk-on signals point to long-term equity upside, aggressive traders should watch GLD. Favorable seasonality and deeply oversold sentiment extremes create a powerful contrarian setup for gold over the summer.

Key points:

  • GLD down 30% from highs with GLD Optix below 36% (high win rate reversal signal), favorable seasonal window (71% win rate) begins Jun 29.
  • Dollar RSI completes extreme reversal (below 35 to above 78) at 13-month high - near-term strength persists, but severe headwind for commodities (43% win rate).
  • Microcaps, High Beta, and IPO activity flash multiple risk-on signals simultaneously - suggests investors remain in buying mood and bull market may have further upside.
  • Crude falls 38%+ from 252-day high - oil itself remains weak, but broad equity indexes showed resilient forward returns; not a reliable standalone sell signal.
  • Hedge fund bond exposure near -40% (contrary bullish for TLT), Stock/Bond Ratio reversing from extremes - near-term SPX weakness (win rate <40%), but TLT seasonal tailwind ahead.
  • S&P 500 +14.9% in Q2 satisfies 'strong quarter' criterion - historically 20 wins and 0 losses in the following 9 months since 1950.
  • Financials lead all sectors in 10-day relative strength (57% of stocks >80th percentile), but XLF relative TrendScore only 2 vs absolute 8 - participating in rally, not yet leading it.

House view:

  • Stocks:
    • Short-term: Range-bound. U.S. equities displa

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