Key points:

• Four longer-term indicators just flashed favorable for stocks - S&P 1500 RSI breadth (Aug 19), the Market Environment Composite's 100-day MA above 5 (Aug 20), AAII Bulls' 50-week average above 49 (Aug 12), and a hedge-fund bond-exposure signal in force since April 27 that has preceded a 100% S&P 500 win rate with +17.7% median 12-month returns.
• Bitcoin rallied ~20% in three days back toward $80,000; similar short-term price analogs show a 90% one-month win rate, RSI breaking above 70 has a 94% one-month win rate, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index above 50 turned $10,000 into $113,874 versus $7,464 below it - though May 2026 and July 2018 signal failures saw drawdowns exceeding 20%.
• The support-vs-constraint score - EYAR percentile against a blend of 10-year yields (55%), Dumb Money Confidence (25%), and hedge fund exposure (20%) - sits in the 55-70 zone, the second-best holding regime; its 5-day ma crossings above 58 have produced 10 positive one-year outcomes out of 12 since 2001, with both failures (Feb 2001, Nov 2007) landing in systemic crises.
• QQQ Optix's 50-day average dropping below 45 while QQQ holds above its 150-day MA fired on August 11 and 24; meanwhile Bitcoin Optix's 200-day MA crossing above 42.8 (traders flashed extreme bearishness in April and July) suggests burst may have legs, though the signal can be early and demands stop-losses.
• Nearly every gold miner trades above its 10/50/200-day MAs and the HUI clo