The warnings are stacking

Key points

• NASDAQ Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome have triggered eight combined times in the past three weeks
• When the three-week sum crossed above eight historically, the Nasdaq's future return isn‘t good
• SPX sits within 1% of a three-year high while a fewer participation in the breadth
• The breadth setup that was concerning two weeks ago has only deteriorated

The warnings are stacking

Last weeks, we flagged that the Hindenburg Omen had triggered simultaneously across both NYSE and NASDAQ. The composite Titanicburg indicator often told a contrarian read, extreme breadth deterioration had been more capitulation than start-of-something-worse. Worth paying attention to, but the track record leaned the other way.

Since then, the warnings have increased. The NASDAQ versions of both indicators have triggered eight times in three weeks. These names get eye rolls, if you can get past the hyperbole, what they flag is real, internal deterioration while the surface holds up. And right now they are flagging it repeatedly.

No single trigger is alarming by itself. The clustering is what matters. When the three-week rolling sum of combine