The tide may be turning in unleaded gas

Key points:

• The Iran War resulted in a sizeable increase in the price of unleaded gas futures
• Now, however, a combination of factors suggest than unleaded gas futures could fall in the months ahead
• The key factors influencing this crucial market are seasonality, price action, and sentiment

Unleaded Gas price action is threatening to drop back into a downtrend

From mid-December 2025 until the start of the Iran War, the price for unleaded gas futures rose from 168 to 207, or 24%. After the war began, unleaded soared to almost 308, an additional gain of 81%. Since that time, however, the price has declined by over 20%. In the chart below, we see that unleaded remains above its 200-day moving average. As long as that relationship holds, it is reasonable to still designate unleaded as being in "an uptrend."

At the same time, looking at unleaded on a more of a "trading" basis, the price has dipped back below the 70-day exponential moving average, as shown in the chart below. There is nothing better or worse about using a 70-day EMA versus a simple 200-day average. Based on a somewhat subjective personal preference, I use a 200-day simple average to designate "the major trend," but I like the 70-day EMA for sh