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The Summer Rally period approaches

Jay Kaeppel
2026-06-22
The so-called "Summer Rally" period approaches. Does it really matter? Herein, we examine the history of this period and how it has performed relative to the rest of the summer months. Several long-term tendencies emerge.

NOTE: I am away this week; however, I am reposting last year's note regarding the impending "Summer Rally" period. For 2026, this period begins at the close on June 25th and extends through the close on July 14th. The data below reflects results through 2024. For the record, in 2025:

  • June/July/August S&P 500 return = +9.3%
  • Summer Rally Period (12 trading days as defined below) = +2.9%
  • All other June/July/August trading days = +6.2%

Key Points:

  • The supposed "Summer Rally" in the stock market is one of those adages thrown around but rarely defined 
  • This piece takes a closer look at the stock market's performance during the summer months of June, July, and August as a whole
  • We will also zero in on the generally recognized "Summer Rally Period"

June through August S&P 500 performance

The chart below shows the cumulative price return for the S&P 500 Index when held long ONLY during June, July, and August each year from 1942 through June 23, 2025.

The Summer Rally period approaches

The chart below highlights that "summer months" tend to be mostly favorable for several years at a time, and then m

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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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