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The SPX 7-1 Trend-Following Strategy

Jay Kaeppel
2026-05-05
Trend-following has shown itself to be a useful - albeit, inevitably imperfect - investment approach. Herein, we detail one approach you likely have not seen before.

Key points:

  • I generally try to write notes that are timely and relevant to the current market conditions, and/or imminently actionable
  • However, occasionally I step back and focus on the bigger picture, and/or indicators or models that can be used objectively in the future
  • This piece focuses on a simple trend-following model that uses the S&P 500 (SPX) Trend Score indicator
  • For lack of a better phrase, I will refer to this simply as the 7-1 Strategy. This strategy has been bullish since May 15, 2025, and remains so now

What is the S&P 500 (SPX) Trend Score?

The Absolute Trend Score Indicators use a weight-of-evidence framework, aggregating 10 trend-following indicators to deliver a comprehensive composite score for trend evaluation. Scores range from 0 (weakest) to 10 (strongest).

Although the components and duration parameters remain fixed, the indicators provide investors with flexible options for identifying trading or investing opportunities and controlling risk. Additionally, the composites can serve as a secondary filter for your existing technical or fundamental investment approaches, ensuring your strategies align with current market trends. The Absolute Trend Score evaluates the strength of an asset's individual trend.

Trend Score Conditions:

  • Close

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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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