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The S-TCTM Risk Warning Model Triggers a Risk-Off Signal

by Sentimentrader
2026-03-04
The S-TCTM Risk-Warning Model triggered a rare risk-off signal due to deteriorating breadth and high optimism. Historically, this precedes weak S&P 500 returns and skewed downside risk, warranting defensive positioning.

Key points

  • The S-TCTM Risk-Warning Model, a composite of 10 breadth and sentiment indicators, has officially triggered a risk-off signal (March 3, 2026).
  • Historical performance following this signal is notably poor, with the S&P 500 experiencing weak win rates and skewed risk/reward (maximum drawdowns significantly outweighing maximum gains) across most timeframes.
  • Given this macro-level warning, defensive positioning is warranted, as cyclical sectors historically underperform defensives in the aftermath of this signal.

S-TCTM Risk Warning Model sounds the alarm

Identifying major market trends is one of the most critical tasks for any trader or investor. The Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM) is the culmination of decades of professional trading and financial market research, designed to assist in this process. The S-TCTM utilizes a weight-of-the-evidence approach, combining several time-tested key elements to identify significant market turning points.

It is common knowledge that markets trend upward over the long term. Therefore, if one is to reduce market exposure, it is imperative to ensure the odds are heavily stacked in our favor. The Risk-Warning Model is specifically designed for this purpose.

For live updates on the S-TCTM website, please click

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Risk Disclosure: The information and tools provided are for research and analytical purposes only and are not intended as investment advice. Market analysis involves uncertainty, and outcomes may differ from expectations. Users should conduct their own due diligence and consider their individual circumstances before making any financial decisions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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