The rest of 2025 - the good news

Key points

• My 20-year cycle flagged March 2025 as a potential "Ugly" month - sadly, this turned out to be correct
• The same cycle is now flagging certain months during the rest of 2025 and into 2026 as "favorable"
• We examine the history of these favorable months below

The overview

My 20-year cycle numbers each month of the decade as #1 (January of Year "0") through #240 (December of Year "19"). A given month can be labeled "Favorable", "Unfavorable" (I prefer to refer to them as "Ugly"), or "Neutral".

Next up in the category of "Favorable" months are months #65, 67, and 69 through #73. This equates to:

• May 2025
• July 2025
• September, October, November, December 2025
• January 2026

To be clear, this would involve buying an S&P 500 index fund at the end of April, selling it at the end of May, repurchasing it at the end of June, selling again at the end of July, then buying once more at the end of August and - finally - exiting at the end of January 2026.

From 1920 forward, we will use price data for the S&P 500 Index for testing purposes. So, to be clear, the "strategy" (if you can call it that) started in 1925 and bought and held the S&P 500 Index during May, July, September, October, November, December of 1925, and January 1926. It does the same thing every successive twenty years (1945-46, 1965-66, etc.).

The next period in this cycle begins at the end of April 2025. Does it matter?

A look back at the cycle history

The table below displays the hypothetical returns generated every 20 years if the S&P 500 is held only during the abovementioned months.

The table below summarizes stock market performance during these favorable periods.

The chart below displays the hypothetical growth of $1 invested in stocks only during the abovementioned periods.

What the research tells us…

Will the period from the end of April 2025 through January 2026 resemble the results in the chart above? Or is this cycle destined to underperform or show a loss this time around? We cannot predict. 

I recently posted a less-than-favorable note regarding stock market performance for the remainder of 2025. Now this piece seems to promise "sure thing" gains (at least during May, July, and September through January 2026). So, what's an investor/trader to do? "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst" sounds like reasonable advice. Above all else, pay close attention to trends and give the favorable case the benefit of the doubt if price action is sensible during the upcoming "favorable" months.