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The Nasdaq falls back into a correction

by Sentimentrader
2026-03-30
The Nasdaq 100 Index has officially entered a correction phase, with losses exceeding 11%. Although the Volatility Index (VXN) has exhibited a historic "double-peak" pattern—suggesting that market panic has reached its peak, which typically signals that tech stocks have hit a sustainable bottom—the S-TCTM risk model warns that the market will experience volatility and consolidation in the near term.

Key points

  • The Nasdaq 100 Index has officially entered correction territory, declining over 11% from its recent multi-year high.
  • Historically, initial 10% drawdowns from multi-year peaks have presented highly attractive entry points for medium-to-long-term investors, offering robust forward win rates and returns.
  • Volatility dynamics-specifically a cyclical double-spike in the VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index)-are signaling extreme fear, a setup that frequently precedes durable bottoms in tech equities.
  • Macro models like the S-TCTM Risk Warning remain actively triggered, suggesting that near-term chop may persist before a sustained rally materializes.

The Nasdaq 100 falls into a correction

Market sentiment underwent a violent paradigm shift on Friday as the Nasdaq 100 Index was subjected to intense distribution. The technology sector buckled under the dual weight of escalating geopolitical tensions and institutional skepticism regarding the capital efficiency of mega-cap AI investments. The index closed at 23,132.8, a 1.9% drop catalyzed by heavy selling in the tech generals. The Nasdaq currently sits approximately 11.43% below its October peak (26,119.8), officially crossing the threshold into correction territory.

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