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The Nasdaq Composite joins the all-time high club

Dean Christians
2024-03-01
For the first time in 569 days, the Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high, ending the 5th longest drought in history. The breakout represents the first precedent after a bear market. After similar signals, the composite displayed an 80% win rate a year later.

Key points:

  • The Nasdaq Composite closed at a new all-time high, marking the first instance after a 20% drawdown
  • Similar record highs for an index that contains a vast number of stocks preceded bullish outcomes
  • A timing system that compares the Nasdaq Composite to the S&P 500 continues to prefer the Nasdaq

Another broad composite joins the growing list of indexes recording an all-time high

The NASDAQ Composite contains over 2500 domestic and international common-type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market, making it one of the most expansive indexes in the United States.

Thursday's trading session concluded with the index hitting a new all-time high, ending a 546-day drought without such a record and marking the first instance following a 20% drawdown. 

With the Nasdaq Composite joining other popular indexes like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NYSE Composite in the all-time high club, the stock market continues to exhibit bullish price action.

Similar record highs preceded a bullish outlook

Once the Nasdaq Composite achieves an all-time high after a bear market, the broad-based index tended to sustain the positive momentum, showcasing an 80% win rate over the subsequent year. 

Bear markets promptly followed two instances, 1978 and 1969. The 1978 occurrence saw the composite decline -20.37% over 44 sessions, constituting a stealth bear. In the 1969 precedent, the situation was notably bleaker, with a decline of -36.74% over 136 sessions. 

Over the subsequent two months, drawdowns were limited, with only 3 out of 15 displaying a max loss greater than -5%. 

Nasdaq Composite weightings

While sector weightings may vary over time, investors must remember that investing in the Nasdaq Composite today equates to a bet on Technology, with the industry accounting for 57% of the index.

Relative Strength

The timing model I use to assess relative strength between the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 continues to favor the Nasdaq. Our developers are currently programming this model along with several others, enabling subscribers to track relevant trends on the website's strategies page. Stay tuned.

What the research tells us...

In a notable market development, the Nasdaq Composite achieved a historic milestone by closing at a new record high, marking a significant recovery following a brutal bear market in 2022. This accomplishment signals a robust resurgence in the technology-heavy index, highlighting the resilience of Nasdaq stocks. The composite joined several popular indexes in record territory, underscoring broad market strength.

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