The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established several new extremes this week, mostly in metals and bonds. Hedgers moved to near-record net long positions in silver and platinum. It's extremely unusual for these traders to have net long exposure in almost any contract, particularly the metals, and it should be a bullish development over a multi-month time frame. Across all metals in aggregate, hedgers are holding fewer than 25,000 contracts net short. The Backtest Engine shows that in the 3 months following similar positioning, gold rallied after 94 out of 116 weeks, an 81% win rate, with an average return of +5.8%. Across 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasuries, hedgers are holding nearly 1.6 million contracts net long. Over 30 years, the only time they had more exposure to those notes was during August - November 2018, after which funds like TLT rallied strongly. In stocks, they are modestly reducing near-record long positions in Russell 2000 and e-mini S&P 500 futures. If history holds, this should be a tailwind for stocks. In other markets, hedgers are currently holding more than 46% of lumber futures net long, a record high. That market does not have a particularly good track record for hedgers, however.