The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that this may be a new year, but it's the same story. Commodities continue to rise, and hedgers continue to sell. Remember, they are long the underlying markets so it's not like they're losing money, but when they hedge heavily the contracts tend to fall back in price. That's not happening, which is a dramatic change from the past 7 years. In corn, hedgers are now holding 28% of the open interest net short, the most in 25 years. It's approached this level only 2 other times, in February-March 2004 and April-June 2011, leading to heavy losses over the next 6 months both times according to the Backtest Engine.
