The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers continued to aggressively add to positions in 10-year Treasury notes, now holding more than 15% of open interest net long. The Backtest Engine shows that TLT rose after 95 out of 115 weeks in the 3 months following similar extremes, averaging a return of +3.6%. Hedgers also continued to add to a multi-year extreme in long exposure to the Mexican peso, but the currency tends to embark on sustained rallies only after hedgers start to reverse their positions. In major equity index futures, hedgers moved to an all-time record short position of more than $78 billion. This is perhaps not as reliable a signal as it had been prior to the last year, but it's still a worry.
