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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2020-09-04

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows a clear theme among "smart money" hedgers - selling commodities. They moved to multi-year short exposure in sugar, soybeans, and coffee. That pushed their shorts in agriculture contracts to the most since 2016. Looking at equal-weighted positioning in the contracts that make up the CRB commodity index, they have never been shorter than now. The Backtest Engine shows that when their total short was more than 100,000 contracts, as it is now, the CRB index suffered declines in the months ahead each time. As always, if commodities can buck this trend, it strongly suggests a long-term positive change in the market environment.

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