The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers moved to another record short against the Canadian dollar and this week added coffee to the list. The Backtest Engine shows that over the past decade, when hedgers hold more than 25% of Coffee's open interest net short, the contract has declined over the next year every time, averaging a return of -26%. The other notable position change was in major equity index futures, where small speculators added to an already-record net long position, pushing it now to nearly $39 billion. This should be a headwind for stocks, but we place a low weight on it.
