The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers pushed even further on their equity index short positions, primarily in the S&P 500. For the first time ever, they're holding more than $100 billion worth of contracts net short. This is counter to how they typically behave, and we've been noting for over a year that this data is acting oddly compared to how it did in the prior decade. So, it seems worrisome, but we're not putting a lot of weight on it. Elsewhere, they moved to a multi-year long position in the Mexican peso, but that currency can get stuck in a rut like few others. Hedgers remain heavily long 10-year Treasury note futures. In cocoa, they're net long more than 5,000 contracts, which the Backtest Engine shows led to an average 4.7% gain over the next 3 months during the past 15 years.
