The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established only a couple of new extremes this week. Notably, they're now holding a net short position of less than 6% of the open interest in platinum, which has preceded decent long-term rallies in the metal with the exception of mid-2001. Disappointing to stock bulls, hedgers continued to sell major equity index futures and how hold about $51 billion worth of contracts net short. As we've been noting for almost two years, though, this data (for stocks) started to act screwy after the pandemic and it's probably wise to weigh it less than we have in the prior decade. Also surprising, hedgers appeared to capitulate in 10-year Treasury futures and sold positions heavily. While it's easy to be snarky, these are asset managers with massive positions in other markets and own tremendous amounts of underlying notes and bonds. Treasuries tend to bottom when hedgers build up a large net long positon and then start to reverse them, so this may actually be a positive for that market. In currencies, hedgers increased their long exposure to the British pound and now hold more than 32% of the open interest net long. The Backtest Engine shows decent two-month returns after they accumulated this large of a position.
