The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established new multi-year long exposure to the Mexican peso and Japanese yen. Like most currencies, however, sustainable rallies in the currencies tended to occur once hedgers started to reverse their positions and move back toward net short. Their longs in foreign currencies coincide with a massive short position in the U.S. dollar, more than 70% of open interest. The Backtest Engine shows that the dollar rallied over the next 3 months after such a significant short position only 39% of the time, averaging a return of -0.9%. That was a decent sign for gold, which rallied 63% of the time, averaging +2.6%. In 10-Year Treasuries, hedgers hold more than 400,000 contracts net long, more than 10% of open interest. The Backtest Engine shows that the TLT fund rallied 75% of the time over the next three months, averaging +3.0%, after similar extremes. The BND fund rallied 86% of the time, averaging +1.4%.