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< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2020-12-28

Due to the Christmas holiday, there was a delay in the release of last week's Commitments of Traders data. The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established a new extreme short position in the broader commodity complex, coupled with decade-high long exposure to the U.S. dollar. The latter hasn't been a very effective indicator, as we've discussed multiple times over the past several months. The former position, a large short against commodities, has been more effective. Every time hedgers held more than 100,000 contracts net short, the CRB index declined in the months ahead. Recent months have been an exception, increasing the probability that a structural shift has occurred and commodities are in a new bull phase. In stocks, hedgers reduced their positions and are holding about $15 billion net short, about in the middle of their recent range.

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