The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established new multi-year short exposure in copper and agricultural contracts. In copper, they're holding more than 86,000 contracts net short, a new record, but open interest has grown. As a percentage of open interest, they're holding 32% of contracts net short, near the most in 17 years. This was not a successful signal to sell prior to then, as they regularly held more contracts net short. It's the same story in ag contracts that we've been noting for many months - this is unlike all prior extremes in the past decade when a big short position by hedgers almost immediately put an end to rallies. In 10-year Treasuries, hedgers picked up their buying but remain well below prior extremes, while continuing to hold long positions in the dollar and (almost net long) palladium. They reduced major equity index positions by a small amount and it's not saying much.
