The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established no new multi-year position extremes this week. They continued to sell S&P 500 contracts and are net short about $21 billion worth of major equity index futures. That's not extreme, but it's a stark change from a month ago. Hedgers are net short more than 6% of the open interest in wheat, which the Backtest Engine shows led to gains in wheat only 24% of the time during the next two months. They hold more than 50% of open interest net long in the Japanese yen. Over the past 15 years, such heavy long exposure led to excellent gains with little risk...except for the entire 2012-14 period, which was just loss after loss. We've already seen hints that this period is similar in that the yen is not reacting to extremes. They're close to going net short the Aussie dollar, which actually may be a good sign - other rallies in that currency tended to occur after hedgers established large net long positions then flipped to net short. Hedgers are selling sugar again, and total positions in agriculture contracts are nearing record short exposure.
