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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2021-07-02

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers didn't move to any new multi-year extremes during a mostly quiet pre-holiday week. In the U.S. dollar, one of the counterparties to hedgers - small speculators - are now holding 12% of open interest in the dollar net long, the most in 3 years. The Backtest Engine shows that over the past 20 years, the dollar struggled over the next 1-3 months when small specs were so bullish. We'll have to see if the buck has enough oomph to overwhelm this data. Hedgers have been aggressively covering massive short exposure in soybeans and corn, which continued this week. Still, they have a long way to go before the setup turns more positive for grains or agriculture contracts in aggregate.

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